铁矿石月报：需结构继续转弱，矿价承压运行-20250530

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In June, the global iron ore supply - demand balance is statically loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In May, the spot and futures prices of iron ore fluctuated weakly. As of May 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [4]. 3.2 Supply - side - The shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase by about 3 million tons in June compared to the previous month. Specifically, VALE is expected to ship 25 million tons, up 300,000 tons; Rio Tinto 27.85 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; BHP 27.2 million tons, up about 1.85 million tons; FMG 17.75 million tons, down 1.05 million tons [6][26][29]. - Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable. In June, the estimated shipment is 44.85 million tons, a decrease of about 50,000 tons [6][33]. - The domestic iron ore output is expected to be 20.85 million tons in June, a decrease of 470,000 tons compared to the previous month. Overall, the global supply in June is expected to increase by about 2.48 million tons month - on - month [6][36][37]. 3.3 Demand - side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated blast furnace hot metal output in June is 73.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons compared to the previous month, which translates to a decrease of about 3.93 million tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [7][17][23]. - Overseas, except for China, the daily average pig iron output is generally stable. The estimated pig iron output in June will increase by about 225,000 tons compared to the previous month, which translates to an increase of about 370,000 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore. Globally, the demand for 61% grade iron ore in June will decrease by about 3.56 million tons [7][20][23]. 3.4 Inventory - At the end of May, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 139 million tons, a decrease of 435 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to accumulate in June [38]. - Steel mills mostly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory fluctuates within a narrow range, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio continues to weaken [40].