聚烯烃月报：关注新产能投放节奏，反弹偏空-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "rebound short" rating for both PE and PP, suggesting a bearish outlook on the market [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand situation for both PE and PP is weak. New capacity is expected to come online in the coming months, while demand remains sluggish, leading to an oversupply situation [4][6] - The prices of both PE and PP are expected to face downward pressure in the future, with short - term rebounds being opportunities for shorting [4][6] - For PE, the L - PP09 spread is recommended for short - allocation in arbitrage trading; for PP, the PP9 - 1 spread can be considered for long - position when it retraces to a certain level [4][67] Summary by Directory 1. This Month's Review PE - The L2509 fluctuated in the range of [6936 - 7357], with the price first falling and then rising, and the center of gravity moving down. The market reacted to the 10% mutual tariff reduction between China and the US on May 12, but the positive sentiment was short - lived. In May, it was the peak season for PE device maintenance, with the daily average output at 8.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. From week 1 to 22, the cumulative year - on - year production of PE, LL, HD, and LD increased by 18%, 28%, 7%, and 20% respectively, indicating high supply pressure for standard products [3] PP - The PP2509 fluctuated in the range of [6846 - 7193], with the price first falling and then rising, and the center of gravity moving down. The market also reacted to the tariff reduction on May 12, but due to weak fundamentals, the upward momentum was insufficient. In May, the intensity of PP device maintenance decreased compared to the previous period, with the daily average output at 10.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. From week 1 to 22, the cumulative year - on - year production increased by 17% [5] 2. Next Month's Outlook PE - Supply: From June to July, new devices with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons from ExxonMobil, Shandong New Era, etc., are planned to be put into production. In June, the planned maintenance and restart capacities of PE devices are 2.34 million tons and 1.85 million tons respectively, with the maintenance intensity slightly higher than the restart plan. Currently, the import profit margin of LL has turned negative, and the import pressure has been temporarily relieved, but the overall supply is still under pressure [4] - Demand: The domestic demand for agricultural films is in the seasonal off - season, the downstream start - up data is showing a marginal decline, and the short - term export rush is not sustainable. The inventory of middle - stream traders is at a year - on - year high, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged [4] - Strategy: With the continuous decline in prices, the short - term market will experience a phased consolidation. However, due to the weak fundamental expectations and the long - term downward expectation of oil prices, it is recommended to short on rebounds. The L2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6800 - 7100]. For arbitrage, short - allocate the L - PP09 spread [4] PP - Supply: The inventory pressure in the PP industry chain is generally neutral in the short term. According to the maintenance plan, the planned maintenance and restart capacities of PP devices in June are 2.42 million tons and 2.43 million tons respectively, with little impact from existing devices. The cost of oil and coal is weak, and the profit has been significantly restored compared to the past two years, so the probability of unexpected device maintenance is low. From June to July, a new round of production peak is coming, with a planned new capacity of 3.25 million tons. Although the low absolute price can stimulate short - term restocking by downstream enterprises, the demand is entering the off - season, and the market expectation is weak [6] - Strategy: The overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the center of gravity of oil prices is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds. The PP2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6700 - 7050] [6] 3. PE Monthly Data - Price: The closing price of the PE main contract in May was 7025, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The price of Ningxia Coal was 7060, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. The main contract basis was 35 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 143 yuan/ton), and it was moderately high year - on - year [8][11] - Spread: The L9 - 1 spread was 40 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 26), and it is advisable to go long when it retraces to near the 0 - axis. The L - PP09 spread was 107 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 77 yuan/ton), and in the long run, there is still room for the spread to narrow [13][16] - Position: As of May 29, the position of the PE main contract was 540,000 lots, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% [8] - Inventory: The total inventory in May was 1.652 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Among them, the enterprise inventory decreased by 5.3%, the social inventory increased by 1.4%, the import inventory increased by 2.5%, and the trader inventory increased by 7.6% [8] 4. PP Monthly Data - Price: The closing price of the PP main contract in May was 6918, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The price of East China Drawing was 7060, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%. The main contract basis was 142 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 45) [61] - Spread: The PP9 - 1 spread was 54 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 10), and it is advisable to go long when it retraces to near 50. The PP - 3MA09 spread was 264 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6), and the long MTO position can continue to be held [67][70] - Position: As of May 29, the position of the PP main contract was 520,000 lots, a month - on - month increase of 29.8% [61] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory in May was 817,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the enterprise inventory decreased by 1.9%, the trader inventory increased by 10.5%, and the port inventory decreased by 8.1% [61] 5. Consumption, Real Estate, and Export - Consumption: From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 4.7%, showing a "policy - driven recovery." The year - on - year growth rates of household appliances, furniture, and other durable goods exceeded 25%, while the decline of petroleum products reached 5.7% [24][27] - Real Estate: The decline in the completion of real estate projects has widened, and prices have not stopped falling [24][28] - Export: In April, the export value of plastics and products to the US decreased by 23% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year, indicating a significant negative feedback effect of tariffs on exports. The import value of plastics and products from the US increased by 6.9% month - on - month and decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, showing a situation of "rush to import" in China [24][32] 6. PE Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Capacity: As of now, a total of 2.58 million tons of new capacity has been put into production this year. From June to July, new devices with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons are planned to be put into production, which will bring high supply pressure to the 09 contract [33][35] - Production: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production continues to increase, and it is expected to reach 25.1% by the end of the year [34] - Consumption: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of apparent consumption is also increasing, and it is expected to be around 18.1% by the end of the year [34] - Inventory: The inventory situation shows fluctuations, with different trends in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and petrochemical inventory [34] 7. PP Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Capacity: As of now, a total of 1.955 million tons of new capacity has been put into production this year. From June to July, a new round of production peak is coming, with a planned new capacity of 3.25 million tons [77][78] - Production: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production is increasing, and it is expected to reach 18.1% by the end of the year [78] - Consumption: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of apparent consumption is also increasing, and it is expected to be around 15.2% by the end of the year [78] - Inventory: The inventory situation shows fluctuations, with different trends in enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory [78] 8. Propylene Weekly Fundamentals - Price: The price is running at a year - on - year low [106] - Supply: The operating rate of PDH is increasing marginally and is at a year - on - year high [108] - Demand: The operating rate of downstream industries is declining [110] - Cost and Profit: Relevant information about cost and profit is also presented in the report, but detailed numerical analysis is not provided here [116]