“反脆弱”系列专题之十：财政“前置”后该关注什么？

Group 1: Fiscal Characteristics - In the first four months of 2025, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2%[3] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate in Q1 2025 was 5.6%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate, marking the best performance since 2023[3] - In April 2025, broad fiscal expenditure increased by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating strong fiscal support for the economy[3] Group 2: Revenue and Debt Financing - From January to April 2025, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, falling short of the budget target by 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to declines in tax and land transfer revenues[3] - Government debt net financing reached 4.8 trillion yuan in the first four months, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, becoming a core support for broad fiscal expenditure[4] - As of May 24, 2025, the issuance of government bonds had reached 42.7% of the budget target, significantly higher than the average of 16.9% from 2020 to 2024[4] Group 3: Future Fiscal Policies - The total net financing scale for government debt in 2025 is set at 13.86 trillion yuan, with 6.3 trillion yuan already financed by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued[5] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds is expected to accelerate, with a projected net financing increase of 2.3 trillion yuan in Q2 and maintaining high levels in Q3[5] - Incremental policies may be introduced to smooth fiscal expenditure and ensure the achievement of annual economic targets amid uncertainties in economic recovery[6] Group 4: Investment Focus - Key areas for fiscal investment to stabilize growth include service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment[8] - Service consumption currently shows significant recovery potential, needing policy support to enhance consumer spending[8] - The government aims to improve income distribution mechanisms and strengthen social security to boost consumption effectively[8]