玻璃：需求淡季，抄底不具有安全边际

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In May, the float glass market faced dual pressures of "weak reality + weak expectation", with the price center continuing to decline. The overseas tariff risk eased, but concerns about the US debt crisis emerged, resulting in low overall risk appetite. The domestic economy shifted from "strong production, weak demand" in the first quarter to a pattern of "weak production and demand". In April, the PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the industrial deflation pattern remained. From January to April, the year - on - year decline in real estate completion expanded to 16.9%, and the medium - term demand for glass continued to shrink. Entering June, with the arrival of the rainy season and summer heat, under the expectation of the off - season, the inventory of the middle and upper reaches was high, and enterprises and traders mainly reduced prices to clear inventory, causing the spot market to operate weakly. Under the pessimistic off - season expectation, the main contract was at a discount to the spot price. On the supply side, there were still profits in the coal - based production lines, and there was insufficient motivation to reduce supply. The start - up rate and daily melting volume of glass recovered from a low level, showing supply pressure. As the prices of raw material soda ash and fuel coal continued to reach new lows, driving down the cost center of glass, which further dragged down the futures and spot prices of glass. There was no safety margin for bottom - fishing, and long positions could only be attempted when there were improvements in both supply and demand and the cost side stopped falling and stabilized [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: As of May 29, the FG2509 contract closed at 985 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 9.15% [5]. - Spot Market: As of May 29, the monthly change range of the spot price was between - 8.5% and 0 [5]. - Basis: In May, the spot quotes of glass were generally lowered. The basis in the Hubei region of the main FG509 contract was 85, with the basis first rising and then falling, and the basis rate was 8.6% [9]. - Spread: The spread between the FG09 - 01 contracts was - 64 points, with the near - month contract being weaker than the far - month contract. The spread between the FG01 - 05 contracts was - 52 points, showing a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength [12]. - Term Structure and Inter - variety Spread: Glass presented a contango structure in the forward market, with the near - month contract at par. The reality was weak, but the space was compressed. The spread between soda ash and the glass 09 contract was 218 points, 52 points narrower than on April 30 [14]. 3.2 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization: In May, the capacity utilization rate increased but was lower than the same period last year. The start - up rate of the float glass industry was 76.01%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.1%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.1% [17]. - Daily Melting Volume: The daily melting volume of float glass recovered from a low level. Currently, it was 15.77 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The monthly average daily output was 15.66 tons. It was estimated that the glass output in May was 4.85 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%) [20]. - Cold Repair: In May, the cold repair was at a high level, and the loss volume was higher than the same period. The average daily loss volume of float glass in May was 43,600 tons. It was estimated that the maintenance loss volume in May was 1.35 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 6.2% and a year - on - year increase of 44.4%) [23]. 3.3 Demand Side - Deep - processing Orders: As of May 15, 2025, the average number of order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Most deep - processing enterprises intended to control the intensity of capital advance. The orders they held could maintain production. Overall, there was no significant change in the orders held by deep - processing enterprises compared with April. A small number of enterprises with sufficient capital strength could hold orders for about 20 days or even up to 30 days when advancing funds for engineering orders. Currently, some export orders of southern deep - processing enterprises had improved month - on - month [27]. - Real Estate Situation: From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate sales area, new construction area, completion area, and development funds were - 2.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.2%), - 23.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%), - 16.9% (a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%), and - 4.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) respectively. The decline in real estate completion and funds increased [30]. 3.4 Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: In May, the inventory of glass enterprises increased and was at a three - year high for the same period. Currently, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million heavy boxes, with a month - on - month increase of 3.34% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.6 days, 1.2 days more than in April and 5.6 days more than the same period last year [34]. - Shahe Area Inventory: Currently, the social inventory in the Shahe area was 3.6 million heavy boxes, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 2.27%. The upstream reduced prices to clear inventory, and the inventory of middle - stream traders remained stable [37]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost lines of the three fuels decreased and were lower than the same period. Currently, the cost of petroleum coke - based production was 1,194 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.15%; the cost of coal - based production was 1,023 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.49%; the cost of natural gas - based production was 1,482 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.18% [42]. - Profit: The profits of the three fuels all declined, and the coal - based production still had positive profit. Currently, the production profit of petroleum coke - based production was - 107.04 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 68.69 yuan/ton; the production profit of coal - based production was 100.1 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 44.95 yuan/ton; the production profit of natural gas - based production was - 167.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.84 yuan/ton [45]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: Currently, the main 09 contract fell below the 1,000 integer mark and the coal - based cost. Technically, the moving averages were in a short - term arrangement. Dynamically track the pressure level of the 20 - day moving average, with a reference range of 850 - 1,050 [3]. - Arbitrage Strategy: The spread between the glass 9 - 1 contracts was currently around - 50, and the negative value was weakening. Reverse arbitrage could still be participated in [3]. - Hedging Strategy: Currently, the glass industry chain showed the transmission characteristics of upstream price - cutting to clear inventory, mid - stream phased inventory reduction, and downstream weakness. Currently, the inventory of upstream glass enterprises was higher than the same period, and mid - stream traders were seasonally reducing inventory. The upper and middle reaches could consider selling hedging at 1,050 - 1,100 when the futures price was at a premium or at par based on their own spot inventory and sales situation [3].