高盛：美国关税虽降但影响仍在，美国通胀与中国通缩，解读全球财政政策转变

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent court ruling blocking certain tariffs does not signify the end of tariff policies, as the US Administration has alternative authorities to impose tariffs [2][4]. - It anticipates a rebound in US inflation, projecting a core PCE price index increase of 2.49% in April, with a forecasted rise to 3.6% by December [6][5]. - The report discusses the ongoing deflation in China, predicting a headline PPI inflation of -2.1% for the current year and -0.6% for the next [7]. Summary by Sections Tariffs Down but Not Out - The report indicates that the US Administration may utilize Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs, potentially leading to investigations that could result in tariffs exceeding 10% [2][4]. - Smaller trading partners may experience relief from tariffs, while major partners may not see significant changes [2]. US Inflation, China Deflation - The report forecasts a core PCE inflation increase to 3.6% by December, driven by tariff impacts, despite disinflationary forces [6][5]. - It also notes that while inflation concerns persist, the expected rebound will be less severe than in 2022, contingent on tariff levels [6]. Digesting Global Fiscal Shifts - The report suggests that concerns regarding the US fiscal outlook may lead to a resumption of steeper US Treasury curves and continued Dollar weakness [10]. - It emphasizes that fiscal expansion and growth risks in Europe will keep the front-end of the curve steep, while Japan may face ongoing pressure on long-end yields [11].