高盛：中国互联网行业-后续行动与关键关注点 -业绩季后的讨论；中国科技网整体要点

Investment Rating - The report has lowered the eCommerce sub-sector preference to 4 from 3 due to a more challenged near-term profit outlook, while identifying JD as having the most favorable upward risk-reward within eCommerce on a 12-month view [1][2]. Core Insights - China Internet companies reported solid 1Q results with top line and profit beats, but expressed conservative tones regarding 2Q profitability due to investments in platform ecosystems, food delivery subsidies, AI applications, and overseas expansions [1]. - Key investor debates include food delivery competition, AI application beneficiaries, and the implications of geopolitical developments [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1Q Results Recap & Stock Ideas - The report highlights the top four investor focuses: food delivery competition, weak 2Q profit setup for transaction platforms, the status of the AI trade, and navigating geopolitical events [8][9]. - JD's GMV growth was estimated at +16% in 1Q25, while PDD and Kuaishou both saw growth of 15% [9]. eCommerce & Local Services - The report notes a significant increase in food delivery industry volume growth due to subsidies, with JD's 2Q new business EBIT loss estimated at RMB 10 billion [9]. - JD's unique 1P + supply chain-driven business model is expected to benefit from the government's trade-in program, while Meituan's food delivery profit is projected to decline by RMB 5-6 billion year-on-year [12][13]. AI Applications - Tencent and Kuaishou are identified as key beneficiaries of AI applications, with Tencent's ads and games businesses expected to benefit directly from AI in adtech and gaming experiences [1][12]. - The report anticipates further model launches and AI agents to sustain investor interest in AI applications over the next 3-6 months [12]. Mobility and Internet Verticals - Mobility is highlighted as a strong growth area, with YMM expected to see over 60% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBIT for 2025 [14]. - Xiaomi is projected to experience a multi-year growth trajectory, with revenue and net profit CAGRs forecasted at 26% and 39% respectively for 2024-2027 [14]. Geopolitical Implications - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events on investor appetite, noting a preference for HK-listed or dual-listed companies over US-only listed names due to potential restrictions and tariffs [12][16].