高盛：中国出口追踪Ⅲ-企业反馈

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The China Export Tracker indicates a gradual recovery in US-bound orders from Chinese corporates following a reduction in tariffs from 145% to 30%, with orders reaching an average of 95% of pre-tariff levels [2][3][19] - Despite the tariff reduction, the overall recovery in orders is described as mild, with many companies still cautious about inventory levels and future demand [3][27] - The report highlights a significant shift in supply chain dynamics, with a notable increase in shipments from China to the US, now fulfilling 47% of US orders compared to 35% previously [19][22] Summary by Sections Export Orders - Post-tariff reduction, export orders from the US have incrementally picked up, averaging 95% of pre-tariff levels, compared to 90-92% in April [3][19] - Approximately 25% of corporates reported a 2-13% increase in US order books, particularly in consumer products [4][21] - A small number of products are experiencing declines in orders, with nearly 60% of corporates reporting no changes [12][21] Supply Chain Adjustments - Nearly one-third of products saw improvements in US-bound shipments, particularly in lifestyle products and machinery [17] - The report notes that only about 2% of corporates plan to move production back to China despite the tariff reduction [18] - The increase in shipments from China is primarily driven by additional orders rather than a shift from ex-China production [19] US Inventory Update - US inventory levels are reported to range from 1-4.5 months, with 42% of corporates indicating a restocking trend [27][31] - Restocking is mainly observed in consumer goods, while industrial products are experiencing destocking [27][31] Pricing Discussions - There has been significant progress in pricing negotiations, with 35% of corporates settling prices, often with end-customers bearing the tariff burden [32][36] - The report suggests that supply chains can function effectively if tariffs remain below 40% [33] Capacity Expansion - Over 60% of corporates are committed to expanding overseas production capacity, with varying degrees of ramp-up planned by year-end [34][38] - Specific sectors, such as selected appliances and industrial tech components, are expected to see significant increases in production capacity [34][38] Shipping Data - High-frequency shipping data indicates a decline in container shipping from China to the US in May, but signs of recovery are emerging [41][42] - Container shipping to Southeast Asia has shown a 26% increase in cargo volume compared to the previous year [42]