心中的「涨」声⑥——天然橡胶

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [3] Core Insights - The global supply structure of natural rubber is undergoing significant changes, with Southeast Asian producers facing supply constraints due to aging trees and competition from alternative crops, while African countries like Côte d'Ivoire are experiencing rapid production growth due to lower labor costs and mature rubber trees [5][31] - Supply growth is limited while demand is steadily increasing, suggesting a potential long-term price increase for natural rubber [6] - China remains the largest consumer of natural rubber, accounting for 45% of global consumption in 2024, with a strong demand driven by the tire industry [30][76] Summary by Sections Supply Side Tightening - The supply of natural rubber is tightening due to a combination of factors including aging tree structures and limited new planting areas, leading to a forecasted production increase of only 0.5% in 2025 [6][48] - Southeast Asia's traditional rubber-producing regions are under pressure, with Thailand's planting area declining for eight consecutive years and production capacity growth being constrained [31][36] Demand Resilience - Global demand for natural rubber is expected to grow steadily, with a projected increase of 1.3% in 2025, driven primarily by the tire industry, which constitutes over 70% of consumption [76] - The tire production rates remain high, with full steel tire operating rates at 65% and semi-steel tire rates at 78% as of May 2025 [80] Market Dynamics - The natural rubber market has experienced long periods of low prices since 2018 due to oversupply, but recent trends indicate a potential shift as supply tightens and demand remains robust [37][40] - The pricing power is shifting towards the supply side, particularly as China faces increasing import dependencies and concentrated sources for natural rubber [30][36]