A股策略周报：“上下两难”时如何破局？

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with major indices showing a "dilemma" pattern, where the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 fell by 0.03%, 1.22%, and 1.08% respectively[54] - The North China 50 index rose by 2.82%, indicating stronger performance compared to other indices[11] - The TMT sector showed some recovery, while export-related sectors performed weakly, with automotive and electric new energy sectors declining by 4.32% and 2.21% respectively[12] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous week[18] - The margin trading balance remained stable at 1.80 trillion yuan, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 8.70%[28] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 12.45 billion yuan, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest inflow[28] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillation and narrow fluctuations, as the technical pressure on major indices has become clear, particularly around the gap formed on April 10 (3186-3201 points)[4] - The brokerage sector, which has been adjusting since November 8, 2024, is seen as a potential "breaker" of the current dilemma, warranting increased attention[4] - It is recommended to maintain current mid-line positions and consider increasing allocations if a rapid market pullback occurs, especially near the April 10 gap[4] Risks - There are risks associated with domestic economic recovery not meeting expectations and uncertainties in global geopolitical situations[58]