Guoxin Securities·2025-05-31 10:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][32] Core Views - The company's e-commerce business shows steady growth, with a 15% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q1 2025, driven by an increase in paid user numbers [3][20] - The company has successfully turned around its overseas business, achieving a 33% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a profit margin of 2.1% [10][12] - The AI product "Keling" is performing well, with revenue expectations raised to $100 million for the year, supported by a high renewal rate among enterprise clients [31][32] Financial Overview - In Q1 2025, the company's total revenue reached 32.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, while the adjusted net profit was 4.58 billion yuan, with an adjusted profit margin of 14% [10][12] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 54.6%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in low-margin live streaming revenue [10][12] - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 16% year-on-year to 3.3 billion yuan, mainly due to higher spending on AI-related personnel [10][12] User Engagement Metrics - In Q1 2025, the company's MAU (Monthly Active Users) was 711 million, a 1% increase year-on-year, while DAU (Daily Active Users) reached 408 million, up 4% year-on-year [2][18] - The average daily usage time per user was 134 minutes, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [2][18] E-commerce Performance - The e-commerce segment's revenue for Q1 2025 was 4.8 billion yuan, with a GMV of 332.3 billion yuan, marking a 15% year-on-year growth [3][20] - The penetration rate of monthly active buyers in the e-commerce sector reached 19.0%, with 135 million active buyers [3][20] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 17.98 billion yuan, showing an 8% year-on-year increase [26] - The company expects a 12% growth in advertising revenue for Q2 2025, driven by improved performance in external circulation advertising [26] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting adjusted profits of 20.1 billion yuan in 2025, 23.8 billion yuan in 2026, and 27.6 billion yuan in 2027 [32][34]