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行业投资策略:水电商业模式稳定,低利率时代价值凸显
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-31 11:47

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power industry, highlighting a stable income center and declining costs for hydropower assets [1][4][21] - Hydropower generation is closely linked to water flow and rainfall, with the Three Gorges Dam serving as a prime example of utilizing water head for energy conversion [19][20] - The hydropower sector is expected to see a significant increase in profitability as depreciation costs decrease over time, enhancing the value creation capability of hydropower enterprises [21][23] Group 2 - The report indicates that there is still growth potential in hydropower installations, with traditional hydropower and new energy projects contributing to a second growth curve for hydropower companies [26][28] - The hydropower industry is entering a phase where high-quality large hydropower assets are becoming scarce, as the country has already developed a significant portion of its technical hydropower capacity [28][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of water and wind-solar integrated bases in expanding the total installed capacity of hydropower, with notable projects planned for the upcoming years [26][42] Group 3 - The report discusses the stability of non-market electricity prices in the short term, while market prices are expected to rise in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan, supporting hydropower revenue [22][23] - Financial costs, including depreciation and interest expenses, are projected to decline, leading to improved cash flow and lower debt ratios for hydropower companies [23][40] - The report highlights the consistent growth in cash dividends from hydropower companies, reinforcing their status as stable investment options in a low-interest-rate environment [6][7][18]