5月PMI数据点评：抢出口脉冲下，为何量增价降？

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI in May rose to 49.5%, remaining below the expansion threshold but showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[6] - The production index increased to 50.7%, indicating a return to expansion after a period of contraction[9] - New export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting a slight improvement in external demand[9] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand improvements are seen as temporary, driven by exporters rushing to ship goods to avoid tariff risks[9] - The new orders index increased to 49.8%, but overall demand remains weak, indicating a need for further stimulus[9] - Companies are actively reducing inventory, with the finished goods inventory index dropping to 46.5%[9] Group 3: Price Pressures - Raw material purchase price index fell to 46.9%, while the factory price index decreased to 44.7%, indicating increasing deflationary pressures[9] - Companies are continuing to lower prices despite a slight recovery in demand, suggesting concerns over long-term oversupply[9] Group 4: Sector Performance - The construction PMI fell to 51%, primarily due to reduced intensity in residential construction, while infrastructure projects remain strong[9] - The service sector PMI rose to 50.2%, but its performance is still below the average levels seen since 2013[9] Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To prevent a downward spiral in volume and price, early policy intervention is necessary to support domestic demand and clarify anti-competitive measures[9]