5月PMI：反弹成色

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May is at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment[3] - The rise in May PMI is attributed to a "breakthrough" in US-China trade negotiations, which has temporarily alleviated export risks[4] - Despite the increase, the PMI remains below the neutral line, highlighting ongoing structural economic risks[3] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The new orders index for May recorded 49.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points, while the production index reached 50.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points[4] - Production resilience is stronger than demand, contributing more significantly to the rise in May PMI[4] - The new export orders index improved to 47.5%, reflecting a 2.8 percentage point increase, influenced by the recent trade agreement[4] Group 3: Price Indicators and Economic Pressure - Both major price indices in the PMI continue to decline, with the raw material purchase price index at 46.9% and the factory price index at 44.7%, both down by 0.1 percentage points[4] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs affects companies' pricing power, complicating the potential for PPI growth[4] - The cautious business sentiment is reflected in the production expectations index, which shows only a modest increase, indicating companies are adopting a prudent approach[5] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The urgency for policies aimed at stabilizing expectations is highlighted, as the negative impact of tariffs on employment and production expectations may be more significant than on exports[5] - New policy financial tools are anticipated to focus on technology innovation to stimulate investment and address demand deficiencies[6] - The necessity for additional consumption-stimulating policies is emphasized to counteract economic pressures and support effective demand[7]