抢出口脉冲下，为何量增价降？——5月PMI数据点评

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI in May rose to 49.5%, remaining below the expansion threshold but showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] - The production index increased to 50.7%, indicating a return to expansion after a period of contraction[7] - New export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting a slight improvement in external demand[7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand improvements are likely to be short-lived due to uncertainties in tariff policies, leading to a potential decline in production after the current export surge[2] - Companies are actively reducing inventory, as indicated by the finished goods inventory index dropping to 46.5%[7] - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell to 46.9%, while the factory price index decreased to 44.7%, indicating increasing downward pressure on prices[7] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction PMI fell to 51%, primarily due to reduced intensity in residential construction, while infrastructure construction remains strong[7] - The service sector PMI increased to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related activities, but still lags behind historical averages since 2013[7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To prevent a downward spiral in quantity and price, early policy intervention is necessary to support domestic demand and clarify anti-competitive regulations[2] - There is a need for measures to stimulate demand to avoid a rapid decline in production once the current export surge subsides[2]