LI AUTO(HK:02015) Minsheng Securities·2025-06-01 00:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 112.30 per share [7][10]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of CNY 25.93 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4%. The vehicle sales for the same period were approximately 93,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.5% [3][4]. - The automotive business gross margin for Q1 2025 was 19.8%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5]. - The company expects Q2 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 123,000 and 128,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [8][10]. Revenue Summary - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was CNY 25.93 billion, with automotive revenue contributing approximately CNY 24.68 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [4]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased from CNY 269,000 in Q4 2024 to CNY 266,000 in Q1 2025 due to changes in product mix [4]. Profit Summary - The automotive business gross profit for Q1 2025 was CNY 4.88 billion, with a gross margin of 19.8% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was CNY 650 million, while the non-GAAP net profit was CNY 1.02 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.3% [5][10]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 1.7 billion in Q1 2025, with free cash flow of CNY 2.5 billion [8]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had a robust cash reserve and continued investment in charging stations, with 2,334 supercharging stations and 12,727 charging piles across 31 provinces and 227 cities [8]. Future Outlook - The company is set to launch the new electric SUV model, the Li i8, in July 2025, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [9][10]. - The report anticipates revenue growth for 2025-2027, with projected revenues of CNY 165.36 billion, CNY 202.45 billion, and CNY 222.69 billion respectively [10].