2025年5月海外宏观月报：关税、财政不确定性扰动经济与市场

Economic Growth - In May, the easing of tariffs boosted growth momentum, but the impact of tariffs may still need to be fully realized[1] - The US Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI both exceeded expectations, pushing the composite PMI up to 52.5[1] - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 49.5, dragged down by the services sector, while manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4[1] Inflation Trends - The US April core PCE inflation remained flat at 0.1% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, meeting expectations[1] - Japan's April core CPI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4%[1] Market Performance - As of May 30, US stock indices rose significantly, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 6.2%, 9.6%, and 3.9% respectively[2] - The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rose by 29 basis points and 24 basis points to 3.89% and 4.41% respectively[2] Policy Developments - On May 12, a joint statement announced a reduction of tariffs from 125% to 34%, with 24% of tariffs deferred for 90 days[3] - The US House passed the "Beautiful Bill," which includes tax cuts and an increase in the debt ceiling, expected to raise the fiscal deficit by $3.1 trillion over ten years[3] Risks - There is uncertainty surrounding the reversal of Trump's tariff policies and increased geopolitical volatility[4]