出口回补带动PMI边际改善

Economic Overview - Export demand index (HDET) recorded approximately 0% year-on-year growth from May 1-30, indicating a recovery in export sentiment post-tariff reduction[2] - From January to May, net issuance of national and local bonds increased by CNY 3.66 trillion year-on-year, supporting domestic demand[2] PMI Analysis - Manufacturing PMI rose from 49% in April to 49.5% in May, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations[4] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, while new orders and new export orders rose to 49.8% and 47.5%, respectively[4] - Employment index in manufacturing improved marginally to 48.1%, suggesting a slight recovery in labor demand[4] Sector Performance - High-tech industries maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.9%, while high-energy industries saw a decline in PMI to 47.0%[7] - Non-manufacturing business activity index slightly decreased to 50.3%, with new orders index rising to 46.1%[7] Price Trends - Raw material purchase and factory price indices fell by 0.1 percentage points to 46.9% and 44.7%, respectively, indicating pressure on corporate profits[8] - Prices for coal, rebar, and Brent crude oil decreased by 6.4%, 0.2%, and 3.7% month-on-month, while domestic copper and aluminum prices increased by 2.1% and 0.9%[8] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected escalation in US-China trade tensions and weaker-than-expected domestic demand[9]