“抢出口”动能或趋弱——5月PMI数据点评

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month[2] - The production index increased to 50.7%, a rise of 0.9 percentage points from 49.8%[2] - The new orders index is at 49.8%, up from 49.2%[2] - The new export orders index improved to 47.5%, compared to 44.7% previously[2] - The employment index stands at 48.1%, slightly up from 47.9%[2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The new export orders index of 47.5% is lower than the average of 48% in Q1 2025 and 47.9% in Q4 2024[3] - The procurement index is at 47.6%, up from 46.3%, but below the average of 50.8% from October 2024 to March 2025[3] - The production index of 50.7% is below the average of 51.9% for the same period[3] - The factory price index remains low at 44.7%, slightly down from 44.8%[3] Group 3: U.S. Import Trends - U.S. import growth averaged 25.7% from January to March 2025, but dropped to 2.6% in April[4] - The U.S. import orders index averaged 51.3% in Q1 2025, falling to 47.1% in April[4] - U.S. import container volumes in May showed a year-on-year decline compared to April[4]