关税、财政不确定性扰动经济与市场

Economic Growth - May tariffs reduction boosted growth momentum, but tariff impacts may still become evident[1] - US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI exceeded expectations, pushing composite PMI up to 52.5[1] - Eurozone May composite PMI fell to 49.5, dragged down by services PMI, while manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4[1] Inflation Trends - US April core PCE inflation remained flat at 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate of 2.5%[1] - Japan's April core CPI rose 0.3 percentage points to 3.5%, exceeding expectations of 3.4%[1] Market Performance - As of May 30, US stock indices rose significantly: S&P 500 up 6.2%, Nasdaq up 9.6%, and Dow Jones up 3.9%[2] - US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased by 29 basis points and 24 basis points to 3.89% and 4.41%, respectively[2] Policy Developments - US-China tariff reduction announced on May 12, with tariffs on both sides reduced from 125% to 34%[3] - The US House passed the "Beautiful Bill," which includes tax cuts and an increase in the debt ceiling, expected to raise the US fiscal deficit by $3.1 trillion over ten years[3] Risks - Uncertainty remains regarding Trump's tariff policies and potential geopolitical volatility[4]