中美关税降级，美经济动能低位反弹

Economic Growth - The easing of tariffs has boosted some U.S. survey indicators in May, with the composite PMI rising by 1.7 to 52.5, driven by improvements in manufacturing and services PMI, both exceeding expectations at 52.3[3] - The first quarter GDP growth rate was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to -0.2%, with inventory and investment contributions adjusted upward, while consumption and net exports were revised downward[3] - Retail sales showed a slight decline in April, with the Redbook retail index indicating a further drop in May's year-on-year retail growth[3] Financial Conditions - Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI) relaxed by 26 basis points from May 1 to May 30, with the S&P 500 rising by 6.2% during the same period[4] - Investment-grade corporate spreads narrowed by 23 basis points to 1.14%, while the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 29 basis points and 24 basis points, respectively, to 3.89% and 4.41%[4] Inflation - April's PCE inflation remained moderate, with the core PCE unchanged at 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 0.2 percentage points to 2.5%[5] - The CPI core goods related to China showed a significant rebound in growth rates from March to April, indicating the impact of tariffs on prices[5] Labor Market - In April, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations of 138,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%[6] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.6%, but the job vacancy rate has shown signs of decline, indicating potential future hiring slowdowns[6][6] Risks - There is an increasing uncertainty regarding Trump's policies, which may lead to a continued slowdown in U.S. economic growth[7]