动力端库存引发担忧，周内月差波动剧烈

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (May 26 - May 30), lithium salt prices continued to be weak. The closing prices of LC2506 and LC2507 decreased by 1.9% week - on - week to 59,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the near - month contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate decreased by 4.1% week - on - week to 59,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide was weak, with the average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreasing by 2.5% and 2.3% week - on - week to 63,100 and 68,300 yuan/ton respectively. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate continued to widen to 2,400 yuan/ton [2][12][13] - The resurgence of the new energy vehicle price war and news about "zero - kilometer used cars" increased market concerns about new energy vehicle inventory pressure, leading to concerns about the slowdown of terminal demand growth and dragging down prices. The inventory of new energy vehicles in China has increased to 1.1 months in the past half - year. In June, the apparent demand in the power sector remained stable month - on - month, while the energy storage sector saw a slight increase month - on - month [2][13] - During the decline last week, the monthly spread strengthened significantly. LC2507 - 2509 strengthened from 1200C to around 100C, possibly due to some funds in LC2507 changing positions in advance. The strengthening of the monthly spread may cause some hedging positions to shift to the near - end. Attention should be paid to whether the spot basis can remain stable and the rhythm of warrant generation [3][14] - Currently, the negative feedback between ore and salt is not over, terminal demand uncertainty is increasing, and the spot pressure is also increasing marginally after the rapid strengthening of the structure. In the short term, the fundamentals are bearish. However, considering that the ore price is approaching the current cash cost of some mines, the short - term downward space is limited. It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current level, and previous short positions can be gradually rolled over when the monthly spread is appropriate [3][16] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Concerns Caused by Power - end Inventory and Volatile Monthly Spread within the Week - Price Trends: Lithium salt prices were weak. LC2506 and LC2507 decreased by 1.9% week - on - week, and the near - month contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. The price of lithium hydroxide was also weak [2][12][13] - Market Influences: The new energy vehicle price war and "zero - kilometer used car" news increased inventory concerns, leading to concerns about terminal demand and dragging down prices. The power - end apparent demand remained stable in June, and the energy storage sector had a slight increase [2][13] - Monthly Spread Changes: The monthly spread strengthened significantly during the decline, which may be due to early position - changing of some funds. Attention should be paid to the spot basis and warrant generation [3][14] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - Hainan Mining: Its 20,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project achieved full - process connectivity [17] - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.: Approved a plan to conduct lithium carbonate futures hedging business, with a margin and premium limit of 54 million yuan and a maximum contract value limit of 240 million yuan [17] - Tianqi Lithium: A 26,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project in Jiangsu was publicly announced for environmental assessment, with a total investment of 207.4845 million yuan [18] - MIIT: Will strengthen the rectification of "involution - style" competition in the automotive industry and maintain a fair and orderly market environment [18] 3. Monitoring of Key High - frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Resource End: Continuous Decline in Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes - The spot price of lithium concentrate continued to decline, with the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropping from 690 US dollars/ton to 676 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.0% [13] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Significant Strengthening of Monthly Spread - The monthly spread of lithium salt strengthened significantly. LC2507 - 2509 strengthened from 1200C to around 100C [3][14] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Decline in Quotes - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium all declined to varying degrees [13] 3.4 Terminal: Recovery of New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate in China in April - In April, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded [38]