二手房增速，重回924之前

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of second - hand housing transactions has slowed down, with the year - on - year growth rate in May returning to the level before the "9·24" policy. New housing transactions showed a mixed performance, with some cities improving and others continuing to decline [1][2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Transaction Data Second - hand Housing - The weekly transaction volume of second - hand housing in 15 cities decreased by 8% week - on - week from May 23 - 29, after a 4% increase the previous week. The decline was greater than seasonal patterns and those of the same period in 2023 and 2024. By city tier, first, second, and third - tier cities saw declines of 2.1%, 14.5%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - In first - tier cities, Shenzhen and Shanghai decreased by 18.8% and 1.9% respectively, while Beijing increased by 5.3%. In second - tier cities, Chengdu had a large decline of 25%, and some cities like Hangzhou, Suzhou, Xiamen, and Nanning had declines between 1% - 11%, while Qingdao increased by 7.7% [1] New Housing - The weekly transaction volume of new housing in 38 cities increased by 9% week - on - week from May 23 - 29, following a 4% increase the previous week. However, the growth rate was weaker than that of the same period in 2024 but the same as in 2023. By city tier, first - tier cities' new housing transactions turned from decline to growth, and second and third - tier cities continued to grow, with increases of 9%, 10%, and 8% respectively [2] - In first - tier cities, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shenzhen increased by 13%, 11%, 2%, and 1% respectively. In second - tier cities, Wuhan and Hangzhou had large increases of 78% and 70% respectively, while Chengdu, Qingdao, and Nanning decreased by 18%, 15%, and 8% respectively [2] 2. Monthly Transaction Data Second - hand Housing - From May 1 - 29, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities increased by 8% year - on - year, significantly slower than in March and April (38% and 20% respectively). The current year - on - year growth rate has dropped to the level before the "9·24" policy, the lowest since October 2024 [2] - In Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, second - hand housing increased by 19% year - on - year from May 1 - 29, lower than the 31% and 45% in April and March. Second and third - tier cities also showed a similar slow - down trend, with second - tier cities increasing only 2% and third - tier cities 2% year - on - year from May 1 - 29, much lower than previous months [2][3] New Housing - From May 1 - 29, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities decreased by 6% year - on - year, an improvement from the 13% decline in April but still worse than the 1% growth in March [4] - First - tier cities showed signs of recovery, with an 8% year - on - year increase, an improvement from - 12% in April and similar to March. Second - tier cities continued to weaken, with a 16% year - on - year decline, a larger drop than in April and March. Third - tier cities were relatively stable, with a slight 2% year - on - year decline, better than - 17% in April but worse than the 5% growth in March [4] 3. Key City Observations First - tier Cities - From May 23 - 29, in first - tier cities, second - hand housing transaction volume decreased by 2.1% week - on - week, and new housing increased by 9% week - on - week [18][19] - For second - hand housing, excluding Guangzhou (no data), Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 2.1% week - on - week. Shenzhen and Shanghai decreased by 18.8% and 1.9% respectively, while Beijing increased by 5.3%. Compared with last year's high, Beijing and Shanghai were at 74% and 78% respectively, and Shenzhen at 54%. Year - on - week, all three cities increased, and year - on - month from May 1 - 29, they also increased but with lower growth rates than in April [18] - For new housing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shenzhen increased by 13%, 11%, 2%, and 1% respectively week - on - week. Compared with last year's high, all four cities were at lower levels (29% - 52%). Year - on - week, all four cities increased, and year - on - month from May 1 - 29, Beijing and Shenzhen decreased, while Guangzhou and Shanghai increased, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou performing better than in April [19] Other Key Cities - In Hangzhou, second - hand housing decreased by 1.5% and new housing increased by 70% week - on - week from May 23 - 29, equivalent to 68% and 24% of the 2024 high respectively [19] - In Chengdu, second - hand housing decreased by 25% and new housing decreased by 18% week - on - week from May 23 - 29, equivalent to 58% and 56% of the 2024 high respectively [19] 4. Housing Price Observation - From May 19 - 25, the weekly listing prices of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.03%, 0.27%, and 0.24% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, they decreased by 5.3%, 1.1%, and 4% respectively [43]