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东南亚消费行业4月跟踪报告：印尼与泰国经济增长放缓
Haitong Securities International·2025-06-01 07:51

Investment Rating - The report does not specify explicit investment ratings for the Southeast Asia Staples and Discretionary sectors. Core Insights - Economic growth in Indonesia and Thailand has slowed, with Indonesia's GDP growth at 4.87% year-on-year in Q1 2025, the lowest since Q3 2021, primarily due to weak domestic consumption and reduced government spending [15] - Thailand's GDP growth was 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations but lower than the previous quarter's 3.3% [23] Economic Data - Indonesia's GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 4.87%, marking a decline from previous quarters, influenced by weak domestic consumption and government spending cuts [15] - Thailand's GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 3.1%, showing a slowdown from the previous quarter's 3.3% [23] - Vietnam's GDP growth reached 6.93% in Q1 2025, the highest for the first quarter from 2020 to 2025 [37] Inflation Trends - In April 2025, Indonesia's CPI increased by 1.95% year-on-year, driven by a rebound in consumption during the Eid holiday [18] - Thailand experienced its first deflation since March 2024, with a CPI decrease of 0.22% in March 2025 [24] - Vietnam's CPI rose by 3.12% year-on-year in April 2025, with core inflation increasing to 3.14% [2] Consumer Sentiment and Retail Performance - Consumer confidence in Indonesia declined, with the consumer confidence index at 121.10 in March 2025, down from 123.80 in the previous year [20] - Malaysia's leading index rose to 112.5 in March 2025, indicating potential future economic activity [3] - In April 2025, Vietnam's retail sales index for food and beverages showed a year-on-year decline of 1.66% [20] Market Performance - In April 2025, stock indices in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia rose by 3.9%, 2.5%, and 1.8% respectively, while Singapore and Vietnam indices fell by 3.4% and 6.9% [13] - The report highlights that only Vietnam's consumer sectors outperformed the indices, while other markets' consumer sectors lagged [3] Valuation Metrics - As of April 2025, Indonesia's essential and discretionary consumer sectors had historical PE ratios at 1% and 3% respectively, while Thailand's were at 4% and 62% [4] - Singapore's essential and discretionary consumer sectors had historical PE ratios of 36% and 33% respectively [4]