钢铁周报20250601：原料成本松动，钢厂利润持续回升-20250601

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - Raw material costs are easing, leading to a continuous recovery in steel mill profits. The report notes that the price decline of steel is less than that of raw materials, indicating a potential for profit recovery in the steel industry [3][4]. - The report highlights the seasonal shift in steel demand and the uncertainty surrounding overseas tariff policies, suggesting that attention should be paid to these developments [3][4]. Price Trends - As of May 30, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with specific prices for various steel products: - HRB400 rebar at 3,130 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week - High-line 8.0mm at 3,350 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled 3.0mm at 3,200 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled 1.0mm at 3,580 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate 20mm at 3,420 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton [1][8][9]. Production and Inventory - As of May 30, 2025, the production of the five major steel varieties increased to 8.81 million tons, with a decrease in total inventory by 280,700 tons to 9.31 million tons. Notably, rebar production decreased by 59,700 tons to 2.2551 million tons [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.4868 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15,500 tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates that long-process steel profits have risen, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel increasing by 21 CNY/ton, 4 CNY/ton, and 22 CNY/ton, respectively. In contrast, short-process electric furnace steel margins decreased by 20 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: - For the flat steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For the special steel sector: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd., Xianglou New Materials - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3][4].