Minsheng Securities·2025-06-01 10:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the coal sector, including Jin控煤业, 陕西煤业, 华阳股份, 中国神华, 中煤能源, 山煤国际, and 新集能源, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that thermal power generation is expected to see a positive growth rate, with a rebound in thermal coal prices anticipated due to improved demand as the summer peak season approaches [1][7]. - The report notes that coal prices have shown slight increases, supported by improved market sentiment and stable operations amid upstream and downstream negotiations [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable high dividend yields in the coal sector, which enhances investment value amid uncertain international conditions and weak demand [8]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Thermal power generation is projected to turn positive, with a year-on-year increase in total daily power generation of +3.32% as of mid-May 2025, while thermal power generation shows a reduced decline of -0.27% [1][7]. - The report indicates that coal supply is contracting due to low prices, with significant reductions in daily production in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [1][7]. Market Performance - As of May 30, 2025, the coal sector's weekly decline was 0.5%, outperforming the broader market indices [12][15]. - The report notes that the focus on stable high dividend stocks is becoming increasingly relevant in the current market environment [8]. Company Dynamics - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Jin控煤业 and 陕西煤业 highlighted for their stable performance and growth potential [3][11]. - The report suggests that companies with strong cash flow and growth, such as 晋控煤业 and 新集能源, are well-positioned for investment [11][11]. Industry Trends - The report discusses the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the coal market, with a focus on the expected rebound in coal prices as demand increases during the peak season [1][7]. - It also highlights the challenges faced by the coking coal market, with production cuts and weak demand leading to price pressures [10][11].