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保险行业2025年中期投资策略：资负匹配定保险股真实价值
Guotai Junan Securities·2025-06-01 10:20

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - The property insurance sector is expected to maintain stable profitability, with a slowdown in auto insurance premium growth and a continuous release of non-auto demand, leading to significant improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) [2] - In a low interest rate environment, there is a need for better asset-liability matching, with recommendations to invest in pure life insurance companies with greater flexibility and high-dividend leading property insurance companies [3] - The life insurance sector is projected to see stable growth in new business value (NBV) on the liability side, while the asset side is expected to increase equity allocation [4] Summary by Sections Property Insurance - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slowdown in auto insurance premium growth, while non-auto demand continues to be released, leading to a significant improvement in COR [2] - The expected underwriting profitability for 2025 is stable, supported by improved investment returns from enhanced OCI allocations [2] Life Insurance - The life insurance sector anticipates stable growth in NBV, with a continued increase in value rates and improvements in liability costs [4] - The report highlights that the low interest rate environment increases asset-liability matching pressure, particularly for VFA policies, which negatively impact underwriting profitability [4] - The capital pressure on life insurance companies is expected to persist into 2025, despite improvements in liability costs and asset allocation [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in pure life insurance companies with greater investment flexibility and high-dividend leading property insurance companies, such as New China Life, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An [3][4] - The overall profitability of property insurance is expected to improve significantly, with high dividend characteristics becoming more prominent [4]