宏观深度研究：关于关税：特朗普的核心团队在想什么？

Group 1: Key Points on Tariff Policy - The U.S. government plans to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, retaining 10%[4] - In FY2024, U.S. tariff revenue is projected to be approximately $77.04 billion, accounting for 1.57$16.3 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of about 86% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 130%[12] Group 2: Economic Implications - The IMF has downgraded the global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with a 40% probability of U.S. economic recession[43] - The proposed tax reform aims to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, potentially increasing public debt by at least$3 trillion[43] - The U.S. faces significant interest expenses, with FY2024 federal interest payments estimated at $1.13 trillion, and$684.1 billion already spent by April 2025[14] Group 3: Political Considerations - Trump's approval rating was reported at 42%, the lowest during his second term, with only 39% approval for his economic performance[11] - The upcoming midterm elections in November 2026 are a significant concern for the Trump administration, as historical trends suggest potential losses for the incumbent party[11] - Support for specific proposals, such as increasing tariffs as a negotiation strategy, stands at 49% among voters[11] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. capital markets experienced a significant downturn, with major indices dropping between 5.5% and 5.97%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 8.2% year-to-date, reflecting market reactions to tariff policies[18] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating increased concerns over fiscal stability[18]