煤炭周报：火电发电增速有望转正，看好动力煤反弹行情-20250601

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the coal sector, including Jin控煤业, 陕西煤业, 华阳股份, 中国神华, 中煤能源, 山煤国际, and 新集能源 [3][11]. Core Insights - The growth rate of thermal power generation is expected to turn positive, with a rebound in thermal coal prices anticipated due to improved demand during the summer peak season [1][7]. - The report highlights a slight increase in pithead coal prices and a stabilization in port market sentiment, indicating a potential for a new round of coal price rebounds as demand fully releases [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable high dividend yields in the coal sector, suggesting that companies with strong cash flow and low debt will benefit from market confidence and valuation improvements [8][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The average daily power generation in mid-May 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of +3.32%, with thermal power generation's decline significantly narrowing, indicating a potential for positive growth [1][7]. - Coal imports decreased by 7.43 million tons year-on-year, with significant reductions in imports from Indonesia, which supports the bottom price for coal [1][7]. Market Performance - As of May 30, 2025, the coal sector's weekly decline was 0.5%, outperforming the broader market indices [12][15]. - The report notes that the focus on stable high dividend stocks is becoming increasingly attractive amid international uncertainties and weak demand [8][11]. Company Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable performance and cash flow growth, such as Jin控煤业 and 陕西煤业, as well as industry leaders like 中国神华 and 中煤能源 [11][12]. - The report also highlights the performance of specific companies, noting that 电投能源 had the highest weekly increase, while 大有能源 experienced the largest decline [18][19].