Workflow
宏观政策反复,金属价格进入盘整期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-06-01 11:37

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [7][8]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently experiencing price consolidation due to fluctuating macroeconomic policies, particularly regarding tariffs and their impact on metal prices [1][38]. - Gold remains supported by solid fundamentals despite short-term volatility caused by U.S. tariff policies and potential Federal Reserve actions [1][38]. - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are facing mixed signals, with copper prices in a state of fluctuation due to macroeconomic uncertainties, while aluminum prices are supported by domestic policy and decreasing social inventory [2][3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to the back-and-forth nature of U.S. tariff policies, which have affected the credibility of the U.S. government and the dollar [1][38]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold, which are expected to benefit from gold's safe-haven appeal [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are in a consolidation phase, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and inventory levels, with global copper inventory at 525,000 tons, down 26,500 tons week-on-week [2]. - Aluminum prices are supported by favorable domestic policies and a continuous decrease in social inventory, with the theoretical operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remaining stable at 43.865 million tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are under pressure, with carbon lithium down 3.7% to 61,000 yuan/ton, and the industry is expected to face challenges as production cuts are implemented [3]. - The report indicates that the lithium market is currently characterized by a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to a bearish outlook for prices in the short term [3]. Key Companies - The report highlights several companies with strong investment potential, including: - Shandong International (Buy) with projected EPS of 0.78 yuan in 2024 [7]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold (Buy) with projected EPS of 0.94 yuan in 2024 [7]. - Luoyang Molybdenum (Buy) with projected EPS of 0.63 yuan in 2024 [7].