Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of recent changes in US tariff policies on precious metals, leading to a decline in gold and silver prices [1][4] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals market is cautious, with fluctuations in prices due to macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain issues [8][11] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term price increases in copper and aluminum due to ongoing supply constraints and supportive macro policies [10][18] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 1.33% to 33.08 per ounce [1][28] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 248,838.84 troy ounces, indicating a rise in investor interest [1][28] - The US International Trade Court's ruling has temporarily halted certain tariffs, affecting market dynamics for gold and silver [4][48] Basic Metals - LME copper price dropped by 1.22% to 2,448.50 per ton [8][57] - SHFE copper price decreased by 0.24% to ¥77,600.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.42% to ¥20,070.00 per ton [8][57] - The report notes a significant decline in copper imports, with April figures showing a 19.06% decrease month-on-month [9][83] Copper - China's electrolytic copper production in April was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.36% [9][83] - The report mentions a tightening supply situation, with Antofagasta proposing negative processing fees in negotiations with Chinese smelters [10][19] - The anticipated long-term demand from infrastructure and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support copper prices [10][19] Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a slight decrease in production rates [11][12] - The inventory levels for aluminum have decreased, suggesting a tightening supply [11][12] - Future demand from sectors like electric vehicles and power generation is expected to stabilize aluminum prices [11][12] Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices are facing downward pressure due to tariff uncertainties, although inventory reductions provide slight support [13][14] - Lead consumption is currently in a seasonal downturn, with concerns over raw material supply for recycled lead [14][14] Small Metals - Magnesium prices have retreated as downstream demand remains cautious [15] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, while vanadium prices are under pressure from weak demand [16][17]
有色：基本金属行业周报：美国关税政策再度生变，基本金属本周震荡运行
HUAXI Securities·2025-06-01 13:20