华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈第128期：集采优化，看好制剂板块业绩与估值修复机会-20250601

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the formulation sector's performance and valuation recovery opportunities due to the optimization of centralized procurement [14][18]. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at a low point, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocation to this sector. Considering the positive recovery of macroeconomic factors such as US Treasury rates, the report remains optimistic about the growth of the pharmaceutical industry by 2025, expecting a variety of investment opportunities to emerge [11][12]. - The report highlights the impact of the tenth batch of national procurement, which is expected to have an average price drop of 75%, causing significant market sentiment disturbances. This is attributed to an increase in the number of bidding companies and changes in procurement rules [16][14]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the medical device sector, particularly in imaging equipment and home medical devices, and suggests focusing on companies like Mindray and Yuyue [11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 2.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.30 percentage points, ranking third among 30 primary industries [8]. - The top ten stocks by increase included Shutaishen, Huasan Pharmaceutical, and Changshan Pharmaceutical, while the top ten stocks by decrease included ST Xiangxue and Hai Sheng Pharmaceutical [8]. Overall View and Investment Themes - The report suggests a shift from quantity logic to quality logic in the domestic innovative drug sector, recommending a focus on differentiated and internationalized pipelines that can deliver profits by 2025 [11]. - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and the home medical device market is supported by subsidy policies [11]. - The report identifies a potential growth cycle in the specialty raw materials pharmaceutical industry, which is currently at a near ten-year low in valuation [11]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report anticipates a rebound in the market for essential medicines, with a focus on companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, as the growth rate of exclusive essential medicines is expected to significantly exceed that of non-essential medicines [13]. Pharmacy Sector - The report expresses confidence in the pharmacy sector's investment opportunities, driven by prescription outflow and market optimization, with a recommendation to focus on companies like YaoBaiYao and YiFeng Pharmacy [13]. Medical Services - The report notes that anti-corruption measures and centralized procurement are expected to enhance the competitive environment in the private medical sector, with recommendations for companies like Huashan Eye Hospital and Aier Eye Hospital [13]. Blood Products - The report indicates a favorable long-term growth path for the blood products industry, with companies like Tiantan Biological and Boya Biological expected to benefit from increased supply and demand elasticity post-pandemic [13].