经济分析与资产展望：外扰不息、内运行稳，市场延续窄幅整理

Group 1: Market Performance - Overseas equity indices mostly rose, with the German DAX reaching a new high during the week[1] - The Nasdaq increased by 2.01% in May, leading other asset classes with a monthly gain of 9.56%[1] - A-shares experienced a narrow consolidation with the CSI 1000 rising by 0.62%[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points[2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points[2] - Japan's broad CPI reached 3.6% in March 2025, indicating upward inflation pressure[31] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. steel tariff was raised from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025[26] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, but the appellate court temporarily reinstated them[23] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive increase[40] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fluctuated, with a recent drop of 10 basis points to 4.410%[10] - Japanese long-term bond yields have been rising due to increased inflation expectations and a tightening monetary policy[31] - Domestic bond rates remained stable, with slight declines in long-term yields observed[1]