信用周报：信用债ETF质押式回购即将落地-20250601

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market continued to fluctuate this week, with the yield of credit bonds showing a divergent trend. The yield of medium - and short - term notes within 1y increased by 3 - 4BP, while the yield of 7y medium - and short - term notes decreased by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of medium - and long - term varieties performed relatively better, with the credit spread of 7y varieties narrowing by 3 - 4BP [1][9]. - Looking forward, the tariff policy may fluctuate, and the money market is unlikely to be significantly looser in the short term. The bond market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to focus on certain coupon opportunities. For investors with weak liability - side stability, they can focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties with relatively controllable risks and allocate some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds. For those with strong liability - side stability, they can allocate long - term varieties, but it is advisable to prioritize the coupon strategy [2][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review and Credit Strategy Outlook - This week, the central bank's OMO continued net injection. Due to factors such as the reduction of bank deposit rates, the maturity of certificates of deposit, and cross - month disturbances, the money market tightened briefly. There were signs of bond - selling by banks to realize floating profits, leading to an increase in bond - fund redemption sentiment, with insurance being the main net redeemer. The US tariff policy also changed, affecting the bond market sentiment. Overall, the bond market fluctuated, and the yield of credit bonds diverged [1][9]. - It was previously suggested that the spreads of short - term varieties within 2y were compressed to an extreme level, while there was still room for medium - and long - term varieties, and this view remains unchanged this week. Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry [2][13]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 27, 5 wealth - management companies joined the Insurance Asset Management Association, which may become an industry self - regulatory organization covering the entire bank - insurance asset management industry [3][19]. - On May 28, Cinda Asset visited the Guizhou Regulatory Bureau of the Ministry of Finance, and the two parties will cooperate on aspects such as real - economy development, state - owned enterprise reform, real - estate relief, industrial upgrading, and asset revitalization [3][19]. - On May 28, Changchun Rural Commercial Bank postponed the redemption of its secondary capital bond "20 Changchun Rural Commercial Secondary 01" by three months, which may reflect its pressure on capital adequacy ratio [3][20]. - On May 29, Moody's maintained the issuer ratings of 13 urban investment companies with a negative outlook, mainly considering factors such as the slowdown of China's potential economic growth, foreign - trade tensions, and local - fiscal pressure [3][20]. - On May 30, 9 credit - bond ETFs were officially included in the repurchase collateral pool, and the business may take effect on June 6. This will help improve market liquidity and trading activity, and meet the diversified investment needs of institutional investors [4][21]. 3.3 Secondary Market - The yield and spread of credit bonds showed a divergent trend, with the spreads of medium - and long - term varieties performing relatively better. For medium - and short - term notes, the yield of 1y varieties increased by 3 - 4BP, and the yield of 7y varieties decreased by 3 - 4BP, while the yields of other varieties fluctuated within a narrow range. The spreads of 1 - 2y varieties widened by 0 - 2BP, and the spreads of 3y and above varieties generally narrowed by 0 - 4BP [9][24]. - In the urban investment bond market, the yields of 2 - 5y AA(2) and below implicit - rating varieties decreased by 0 - 6BP, while the yields of other varieties generally increased by 1 - 4BP. The credit spreads showed a divergent trend. With the arrival of replacement bond funds in 2025, the risks in marginal regions may be further mitigated [24]. - In the real - estate bond market, medium - and long - term low - grade varieties performed prominently. The yields of 3 - 5y AA implicit - rating varieties decreased by 14 - 18BP, and the spreads of relevant varieties also narrowed significantly. The current yield of real - estate bonds is still attractive [25]. - In the cyclical bond market, the trends of coal bonds and steel bonds were similar. Except for some varieties with yield decreases, the yields of other varieties generally increased. The spreads of 4 - 5y varieties generally narrowed [25]. - In the financial bond market, the performance of bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds was weak, while the medium - and long - term varieties of insurance sub - bonds performed relatively better [26]. 3.4 Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 253.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was 48 billion yuan, an increase of 28.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 102.7 billion yuan, an increase of 35.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 5.9 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity - The trading activity in the inter - bank market decreased slightly, while the trading activity in the exchange market increased slightly [6][7]. 3.6 Rating Adjustment - This week, the ratings of 1 entity were downgraded, and the ratings of 11 entities were upgraded [6][7].