Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the wind power industry [1] Core Views - The offshore wind sector is expected to see significant project launches in the first half of 2025, with over 25GW of approved projects awaiting bidding, marking 2025 as a record year for tenders. The average annual installation of offshore wind capacity is projected to exceed 20GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, significantly higher than the previous plan [4][11] - Onshore wind installations are anticipated to surpass 90GW in 2025, achieving a historical high, with stable main unit prices and cost reductions driving a rebound in profitability. The export of Chinese wind turbines is gaining momentum, with high growth in orders expected from 2025 to 2026 [4] - The profitability of components has been declining from 2022 to 2024, but a recovery is expected in 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Industry News - Recent bidding activities indicate a robust pipeline for both offshore and onshore wind projects, with significant investments planned in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces [10] Market Performance - The wind power sector has experienced a general decline over the past two weeks, with the largest drops seen in casting and forging components, as well as complete machines and bearings [3][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four key areas: 1) Leading companies in tower/pile production with high export potential 2) Leading submarine cable companies with expected recovery and opening export markets 3) Leading complete machine manufacturers with domestic profitability bottoming out and accelerating exports 4) Component manufacturers with opportunities for simultaneous volume and profit growth in 2025 - Recommended companies include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and others [5] Bidding and Installation Data - As of 2025, the cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines nationwide reached 48.8GW, with a year-on-year increase of 78%. The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) in 2025 is 1,720 RMB/kW [7][11] - In April 2025, China added 5.34GW of new wind power capacity, a year-on-year increase of 299%, bringing the total installed capacity to 541.19GW, accounting for 15.5% of total power generation capacity [7][40] Material Prices - Recent trends show a decline in the prices of black materials, with fiberglass and epoxy resin prices remaining stable [7][41]
风电产业链周评（5月第4周）：海风招标景气度持续，黑色类原材料价格持续下降
Guoxin Securities·2025-06-02 02:27