美债“救世主”？——稳定币与监管的十年博弈

Market Growth - The global stablecoin market value surged from $20 billion in 2020 to $250 billion by May 2025, marking an impressive 11-fold increase over five years[3] - Over 90% of Bitcoin transactions on cryptocurrency exchanges are settled through USDT/USDC, establishing them as the de facto "crypto dollar standard"[3] - In emerging markets like Argentina, where inflation exceeds 100%, stablecoins account for 72% of cryptocurrency trading volume, serving as a "digital safe-haven asset" for the populace[3] Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Congress is advancing two key stablecoin regulatory bills: the GENIUS Act and the STABLE Act, which impose strict asset reserve requirements on stablecoin issuers[3] - The regulatory framework mandates that stablecoin reserves consist primarily of high-quality liquid assets, effectively limiting high-risk investments and making U.S. Treasury securities the primary compliant option[3] - As of May 2025, Tether's U.S. Treasury exposure exceeds $120 billion, representing 78.1% of its total reserves, while Circle's USDC reserves are composed of at least 99.5% U.S. government bonds[3] Future Projections - The stablecoin market is projected to reach between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion by 2030, with an estimated $1.3 trillion to $3 trillion in new short-term U.S. Treasury securities to be absorbed in the medium term[3] - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to benefit significantly from the regulatory push towards stablecoin reserves being "Treasury-centric," as stablecoin issuers seek to balance safety, yield, and liquidity[3] Strategic Implications - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that stablecoins will be utilized to maintain the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, reflecting a strategic intent to extend U.S. dollar hegemony in the digital age[3] - The regulatory approach in the U.S. contrasts with the EU's MiCA framework, which focuses on stability and consumer protection, highlighting a more aggressive U.S. strategy to leverage stablecoins as a foundational infrastructure for dollar dominance[3]