HTSC·2025-06-02 04:25Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [7] Core Insights - Retail sales in May are expected to reach 1.85 million units, supported by increased promotional discounts and new vehicle launches [1][39] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 51.6% in April, with a significant year-on-year increase [2][15] - The cumulative number of vehicle trade-in applications as of May 11, 2025, reached 3.225 million, indicating strong market support from the trade-in subsidy policy [3][39] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April, retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were 1.781 million and 2.223 million units, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 14.8% and 11.0% [2][13] - The expected retail sales for May are projected to increase by 5.4% month-on-month [1] Discounts and Promotions - Discounts for both fuel and new energy vehicles increased in May, with fuel vehicles averaging a discount rate of 20.65% and NEVs at 5.56% [4] - Many automakers have introduced zero-interest and fixed-price schemes to lower purchase costs, with BYD offering a minimum price of 55,800 yuan for its models [5] Market Trends - The market for NEVs continues to grow, with April sales reaching 1.146 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.2% [2][15] - The market share of domestic brands reached 65.8% in April, reflecting a strong competitive position [20] Inventory and Pricing - The overall inventory coefficient for automotive dealers decreased to 1.41 in April, indicating a healthy inventory level [29] - The average price of passenger vehicles remained stable at 170,000 yuan in April, with slight variations between fuel and NEV prices [28] Trade-in Policy Impact - The trade-in subsidy policy is expected to significantly boost vehicle sales, with an estimated increase of 960,000 to 1.93 million vehicles due to expanded eligibility [47]