Xinda Securities·2025-06-02 05:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The coal market is expected to stabilize and gradually recover in price, supported by seasonal demand increases and a solid bottoming out of coal prices [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of June 1, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 613 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang port is 1290 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [30] - International thermal coal prices show slight fluctuations, with Newcastle coal at 67.2 USD/ton, up 0.2 USD/ton week-on-week [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.1%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week [11][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 35.7 thousand tons/day (-11.29%) [11][12] - The high furnace operating rate is reported at 83.87%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [11][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 12.7 thousand tons, with daily consumption down by 16.5 thousand tons/day [11][12] - The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is reported at 675 thousand tons, down 7.5% week-on-week [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention should also be given to companies with significant price elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Electric Power Energy [12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, making it a compelling investment opportunity [12]