Changjiang Securities·2025-06-02 05:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aerospace and defense industry [10]. Core Insights - The global satellite internet market, driven by network coverage issues rather than pricing, has significant capacity to accommodate both domestic and international satellite operators, with the domestic satellite communication service market potentially reaching nearly 100 billion yuan annually [2][5]. - The commercial aerospace sector is characterized by market-driven activities, with the satellite industry being its core component. The competition for frequency resources is intensifying, leading to a more closed-loop industry structure [5][21]. - The demand for commercial aerospace capabilities is underpinned by the need for resilient space architectures and the integration of military and civilian space communications, creating a blue ocean market [6][21]. - Domestic satellite manufacturers are actively expanding production capacity and reducing costs, with new commercial rockets and launch sites alleviating supply pressures. The demand for low-cost access to space is expected to be met adequately [7][21]. - The report suggests prioritizing investment opportunities in the early stages of the commercial aerospace industry chain, particularly in space infrastructure construction [8][21]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The commercial aerospace industry is defined by profit-driven activities and follows market mechanisms, with the satellite industry as its main component. The U.S. National Space Policy emphasizes the encouragement of commercial aerospace development as a key goal [5][21]. - The global satellite industry revenue reached approximately $285.3 billion in 2023, with satellite manufacturing and applications being the primary contributors [31][34]. Demand and Growth Potential - There are approximately 50 million people in China who are not connected to the internet due to coverage issues, and globally, around 400 million lack communication infrastructure. The potential market for satellite wireless internet could reach nearly 1 trillion yuan annually by 2030 [6][21]. - The "Thousand Sails" and GW satellite constellations are projected to generate significant market space for satellite manufacturing and rocket launch services, exceeding 270 billion yuan and 80 billion yuan, respectively, by 2030 [6][21]. Production and Cost Reduction - Satellite manufacturing and launch costs are the highest in constellation construction. Domestic manufacturers are planning to achieve an annual production capacity of over 3,000 satellites, which will help reduce costs through mass production [7][21]. - New generation low-cost rockets are already in use, and several reusable rockets are expected to make their maiden flights by 2025, enhancing the capacity for commercial launches [7][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the early stages of the commercial aerospace industry chain, particularly in satellite manufacturing, rocket manufacturing, and launch services, as the market is expected to expand significantly by 2025 [8][21].