地方债周度跟踪：发行与净融资环比均下降，10Y减国债利差大幅回升-20250602

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased both in the current period and are expected to decline further in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds has shortened [4]. - The issuance of new local government bonds has not accelerated in the current period and will remain slow in the next period. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that in 2023 but higher than that in 2024 [4]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in June 2025 is 879.6 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 462.2 billion yuan [4]. - The spread between 10-year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened significantly in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased [4]. - Currently, local government bonds have both allocation and trading values. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities self - operations, local government bonds with a term of 7 years and above, especially 10/15/30 - year bonds, have allocation value; for public funds and other institutions, local government bonds with terms of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - 30 - year bonds have trading value [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (2025.05.26 - 2025.06.01) was 228.212 billion yuan, compared with 248.522 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance in the next period (2025.06.02 - 2025.06.08) is 109.595 billion yuan. The net financing was 137.132 billion yuan in the current period, compared with 142.589 billion yuan in the previous period, and the expected net financing in the next period is 50.751 billion yuan [4][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 13.26 years, shorter than 15.13 years in the previous period [4][13]. - As of May 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 43.9% and 34.9% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 45.0% and 35.1%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.1%/28.1% and 40.5%/29.6%, and in 2023 it was 49.1%/45.9% and 49.6%/46.7% [4][20]. - As of May 30, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed a planned issuance scale of 879.6 billion yuan for local government bonds in June 2025, including 462.2 billion yuan of new special bonds. The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 480.7 billion yuan and 211.9 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 671.4 billion yuan and 332.7 billion yuan [4]. - As of May 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 242.4 billion yuan (85.1 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1629.1 billion yuan (500 million yuan in the current period), with an issuance progress of 81.5%, and 20 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Liaoning was added in the current period) [4]. 3.2 This period's 10Y local government bond - treasury bond spread widened significantly, and the weekly turnover rate decreased compared with last week - As of May 30, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.88BP and 23.40BP respectively, widening by 7.96BP and 1.30BP compared with the previous period. They are at the 67.80% and 90.10% historical quantiles since 2023 [4]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.73%, down from 0.85% in the previous period [4]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou are better than the national average [4].