A股2025年6月观点及配置建议：震荡蓄力，权重占优-20250602

Market Overview - The market is expected to show a pattern of index fluctuations with large-cap and quality indices outperforming [2][3][18] - Current economic fundamentals are stable, with no significant decline in exports due to external changes, and domestic demand policies are still in a preparatory phase [3][19] - Concerns about real estate sales remain, but overall corporate profit expectations are likely to remain stable [3][19] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on quality and cash flow-based approaches as manufacturing financing demand remains weak and capital expenditure continues to decline [3][18] - The upcoming implementation of new regulations on algorithmic trading is expected to reduce trading activity, impacting small-cap stocks negatively [3][20] Sector and Industry Recommendations - Recommended sectors for June include automotive, non-ferrous metals, defense and military, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals, focusing on traditional capacity clearance and the rise of new consumption [4][8][22] - The external tariff uncertainties may pressure domestic economic growth, necessitating more supportive policies for stable internal growth [4][22] Economic Indicators - Total demand growth remains stable at around 4%, with industrial enterprise revenue growth at 3.6% [28][30] - The investment side faces significant pressure, with new construction in real estate and manufacturing investment continuing to decline [19][35] Financial Policies and Market Sentiment - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to announce significant financial policies aimed at stabilizing economic and market expectations [25][49] - The market is currently experiencing limited inflow of incremental funds, with insurance capital being the main force in increasing A-share holdings [20][22]