广义价格指数跟踪（2025-06-02）：广义价格指数回升，对债市影响如何

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The weekly generalized price index (weekly PCI) continues to rise but remains at a low level, and the upward momentum may slow down, requiring macro - policies to hedge external uncertainties [3] - The low - slope recovery of the generalized price does not pose a substantial negative impact on the bond market but hinders the absolute decline of interest rates. The bond market is still bullish in the short term, and a reverse trading strategy is recommended. Attention can be paid to the allocation value of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [4][5] Summary by Directory Generalized Price Index Tracking - The increase in commodity prices and output gap proxy variables is the main reason for the rise of the weekly PCI. The commodity price proxy variable increased by 0.1 percentage points, with the CRB spot index strengthening. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rice and flour wholesale prices was - 2.3%, basically unchanged from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the CRB spot composite index was 1.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The 4 - week moving average of the output gap proxy variable (WEI demand - supply) was 0.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value, indicating short - term improvement in the fundamentals. It is expected that the export rush in June will continue, infrastructure will support fixed - asset investment, and domestic consumption still needs improvement overall, but consumption of some categories such as gold and silver jewelry, home appliances, and digital products is relatively strong [1] - The financial asset price proxy variable was basically the same as the previous value, with little change in the year - on - year growth rates of stock prices and housing prices. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Composite Index was 6.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the second - hand housing listing price was - 8.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [2] - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the US dollar index was - 4.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. Although the year - on - year has rebounded, the recent performance of the US dollar index is still weak, mainly due to the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the potential significant decline in the US fundamentals [2] - The inflation expectation proxy variable decreased by 0.4 percentage points, with both the prices of edible agricultural products and production materials falling. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the edible agricultural product price index was - 5.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value; the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the production material price index was - 9.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value [2] Impact on the Bond Market - The low absolute level of the generalized price makes it difficult to pose a substantial negative impact on the bond market. However, if the generalized price level continues to rise in the medium term, it may accumulate adjustment pressure on the bond market [5] - There is no need to overly worry about banks selling old bonds to realize floating profits. The reason for the bond market adjustment in the first quarter was not banks selling bonds but the significant increase in government bond supply and credit investment. The new supply of government bonds in June is not high, and the impact of bond selling on the bond market is controllable [5] - The bond market is still bullish in the short term. A reverse trading strategy is recommended, that is, take appropriate profit - taking when the market rises and appropriate position - adding when it falls. In the stage of a slightly bullish and volatile bond market, credit bonds have certain advantages [5]