每周高频跟踪：港口拥堵再现，内外分化扩大-20250602

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of May, the impact of the rainy season continued to expand, and the traditional off - season effect became more prominent. Food prices remained stable, export freight rates increased due to port congestion, industrial product prices mostly declined, investment demand was weak, new home sales showed an end - of - month rush, and second - hand home sales momentum weakened [4][35]. - In the short term, the impact of the rainy season and the traditional off - season continued to be released. The May PMI showed a mild recovery, and the risk of repeated external tariff policies still existed, which supported the bond market. Attention should be paid to the export data in early June and the potential "expectation gap". In the future, observe the indicators of freight volume and freight rates in June's "rush to export" and the implementation of domestic policy - based financial tools and infrastructure high - frequency performance [4][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation - related - Food prices basically remained stable. The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, with the decline narrowing. Vegetable prices increased by 1.3% week - on - week, turning from a decline to an increase. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was flat week - on - week, and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products increased by 0.02% week - on - week [9]. (2) Import and Export - related - The congestion at US and European ports pushed up freight rates. The CCFI index increased by 0.9% week - on - week, and the SCFI index increased by 30.7% week - on - week. In the European route, the shipping demand was stable, and the spot market booking price increased. In the North American route, the "rush to export" continued to drive high shipping demand, with some ports congested and route freight rates rising by over 40%. From May 19th to May 25th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, with the year - on - year increase remaining the same as the previous week [12]. - The BDI index remained stable week - on - week, and the CDFI index increased for two consecutive weeks. The freight rates of different ship types in the international dry bulk shipping market showed a differentiated trend [12]. (3) Industry - related - The price of thermal coal stabilized with a narrowing decline. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.03% week - on - week. Although high - temperature weather in the north supported coal demand, heavy rainfall in the south squeezed thermal power. Some coal mines tightened supply at the end of the month, and the port coal price tended to be stable [16]. - The decline of rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 1.9% week - on - week. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 0.7% week - on - week. The supply of five major steel products increased, but the housing construction demand was weak, and the price declined due to high supply and slow inventory reduction [16]. - Copper prices turned from a decline to an increase. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.3% and 0.9% week - on - week respectively. Macro - favorable factors such as the extension of the EU tariff deadline and the possible suspension of tariff policies boosted market sentiment, but the high copper price restricted downstream procurement and limited the price increase [22]. - The spot price of glass fluctuated downward. Due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival and the rainy season in the south, downstream enterprises had limited stocking willingness, and most manufacturers reduced prices to clear inventory [22]. (4) Investment - related - The decline of cement prices continued to widen. The weekly average of the national cement price index decreased by 2.0% week - on - week. Rainy weather in South and East China led to weak market demand and low enterprise shipments [26]. - The sales of new homes in 30 cities increased week - on - week, possibly due to the end - of - month rush effect. From May 23rd to May 29th, the transaction area of new homes increased by 14.5% week - on - week and decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline narrowing. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 7.7% week - on - week, and the year - on - year increase further narrowed, indicating a weakening momentum [27]. (5) Consumption - related - From May 1st to May 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 16% year - on - year (17% in April), and increased by 9% month - on - month. The wholesale sales of passenger cars increased by 17% year - on - year and decreased by 1% month - on - month [28]. - Crude oil prices continued to decline. As of Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively. The planned accelerated production increase of 8 major OPEC + oil - producing countries and the weakening of crude oil demand expectations under tariff policy uncertainty continued to suppress oil prices [3][28].