2025年第22周周报：猪价中枢持续回落，重视生猪板块预期差-20250602

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [10] Core Viewpoints - The pig price center continues to decline, with both active and passive factors increasing the probability of destocking, highlighting the expected difference in the pig sector [2][14] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, indicating strong growth resilience in pet consumption [3][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white chickens and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens [4][18] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average national pig price is 14.41 yuan/kg, down 0.69% week-on-week, marking a new low for the year, with self-breeding profits around 129 yuan/head, down 13 yuan/head [2][14] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight for slaughtered pigs, while demand is supported by pre-festival stocking, but may decline post-festival due to seasonal consumption fatigue [2][14] - The sector is characterized by low valuations and expected differences, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs being highlighted for their profitability [2][15] Pet Sector - The 618 pre-sale event on Taobao showed strong sales for domestic brands, with significant growth in live-streaming channels [3][16] - Pet food exports have seen continuous growth, with 11.02 million tons exported in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.17% [3][16] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., with a focus on companies with high domestic income growth [3][17] Poultry Sector - The uncertainty in breeding imports for white chickens remains, with a significant decline in breeding stock updates [4][18] - The yellow chicken supply is confirmed to be shrinking, with prices sensitive to demand changes, suggesting potential benefits from a recovery in consumption [5][21] - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Xiaoming Co. due to their market share advantages [6][22] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving high yields through the integration of good land, good seeds, good machinery, and good practices, contributing significantly to national food security [7][23] - The emphasis on biotechnology and precision breeding is expected to enhance agricultural competitiveness, with leading seed companies recommended [7][23] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended for its market share increase and consistent performance in the feed sector [8][25] - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in pet health products [8][26]