几内亚A矿区暂未恢复，氧化铝供给小幅增加

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for alumina is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on alumina is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, while the long - term view is to mainly adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The current reduction in ore inventory will not cause a long - term supply gap, which limits the upside potential of alumina prices and profits. With the release of复产 and new production capacity, the supply gap of alumina has narrowed [15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, the含税 price of 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 668 yuan/ton; and in Guizhou, the arrival - at - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in Shanxi had limited impact on mine output. Three mines in the AXIS mining area remained shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased, with the mainstream price at 74 - 75 dollars/dry ton. Newly arrived ore was 367.1 million tons, including 269.1 million tons from Guinea and 81.3 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China rose slightly to 20 dollars/ton [2][12] - Alumina: Spot prices rose overall. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 3297.7 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was 3250 - 3300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market supply contraction supported the price. In the northern market, 2.5 million tons of alumina were traded, down 2.2 million tons from last week, with a weighted trading price of 3304 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. In Indonesia, 3 million tons of alumina were traded at FOB 373 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 3253 yuan/ton in RMB. The domestic alumina full - cost was 3087 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 184 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 11242 million tons and an operating capacity of 8930 million tons, up 130 million tons from last week, and an operating rate of 79.4% [3][13] - Demand: Domestic demand remained unchanged, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 4392.3 million tons, flat week - on - week. Overseas, some electrolytic aluminum plants in New Zealand, Germany started the复产 work, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 8 million tons week - on - week to 2948.8 million tons [14] - Inventory: As of May 29th, the national alumina inventory was 316.2 million tons, down 4.8 million tons from last week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was basically stable; the inventory of alumina enterprises was mostly low; the port alumina inventory was at a low level [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 128201 tons, down 35998 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain during the Week - 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex - factory price of 3350 yuan/ton on May 29th - In Henan, 0.4 million tons of alumina were traded on May 28th, with a weighted average price of 3295 yuan/ton - 0.2 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong on May 28th at a price of 3300 yuan/ton [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost End: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, and prices of domestic caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][24] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It shows data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. From January to May 2025, the supply - demand balance of alumina changed over time [31][32][37] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The report includes data on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [40][43][45]