煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：港口库存逐步去化，仍处高位，煤价触底震荡运行-20250602

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by high inventory levels and limited upward momentum due to the stable increase in hydropower during the flood season. However, as the peak summer demand period approaches, there is potential for coal prices to rise further [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and the positive growth in premium income, which is increasingly concentrated among leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets and the high levels of dividend assets suggest a shift towards equity allocation, particularly favoring resource stocks [2][35] - The report recommends focusing on elastic targets in the thermal coal sector, specifically highlighting low-valuation stocks such as Haohua Energy and suggesting attention to Guanghui Energy [2][35] Summary by Sections Current Market Review - From May 26 to May 30, the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.786 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons week-on-week, representing a growth of 1.59%. The average daily outflow was 2.043 million tons, up by 237,100 tons, a rise of 13.13%. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 30.572 million tons, down by 1.534 million tons, a decline of 4.78% [1][25][30] Price Trends - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the Dazhou South Suburb was 506 CNY/ton, up by 32 CNY/ton. The price at Inner Mongolia Chifeng remained stable at 380 CNY/ton, while the price at Yanzhou increased by 140 CNY/ton to 850 CNY/ton. The port price for thermal coal remained stable at 611 CNY/ton [16][18] - The thermal coal price index in the Bohai Rim remained unchanged at 669 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index also held steady at 665 CNY/ton [18] Inventory and Shipping - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim increased to 82, up by 20 vessels, a rise of 33.18%. The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 30.572 million tons, down by 1.534 million tons, a decline of 4.78% [30][31] Shipping Costs - The average shipping cost on domestic routes increased by 0.24 CNY/ton to 35.83 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 0.68% [32]