GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-06-02 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a cost support level that could lead to a rebound if favorable policies are introduced [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The CITIC Coal Index is at 3,258.46 points, down 0.54%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.54 percentage points, ranking 23rd among CITIC sector performance [2][76] - The coal market is currently buyer-driven, with procurement strategies and intensity determining coal price movements. The upcoming peak summer demand and potential price stabilization policies are critical factors to monitor [10][37] Key Areas of Analysis - Thermal Coal: The market is stable with slight adjustments. Production in major coal-producing areas is tightening slightly, while downstream demand remains primarily for essential needs. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range due to limited demand from power plants [11][13][14] - Coking Coal: The market continues to decline, with prices under pressure from weak demand and high inventory levels. The report emphasizes the need to monitor production cuts from coking coal enterprises as prices approach marginal costs [10][40] - Coke: Profit margins are shrinking, and procurement remains focused on essential needs. The overall production of coke is still increasing, but market sentiment is negative due to declining steel prices [58][75] Investment Strategy - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their potential for recovery. It also suggests monitoring companies like Qinfa and Xinji Energy for their performance amidst current challenges [10][9]