固定收益周报：股债性价比转向债券之后-20250602

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets. If equity - type value assets continue to decline, there may be a good entry window. This week, the report recommends the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][22]. - The Chinese economy is in a state of marginal balance sheet contraction. The liability growth rate of the real - sector and the government sector is expected to decline. The asset - side physical quantity data weakened in April, and it is necessary to focus on the duration of this economic marginal weakening [16][18]. - The US economic situation is similar to that during the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001. It is necessary to focus on whether and when the quarterly real GDP year - on - year growth rate in the US will fall below the trend level [6][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - Liability Side - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7%. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then return to balance sheet contraction. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8% [16]. - Last week, the net reduction of government bonds was 295 billion yuan, significantly lower than the planned net increase of 137.4 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 128.3 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of April 2025 was 14.8%, up from 13.9%. It is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline, reaching around 12.5% by the end of the year [17]. - The money market tightened marginally last week. The one - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.46% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [2][17]. - Asset Side - The physical quantity data in April was weaker than that in March. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market tightened marginally, stocks fell while bonds were flat, and the style shifted to growth dominance. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds shifted towards bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.67%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.46%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.90% [5]. - Since the two sessions in 2025, the balance sheet of the real and government sectors is expected to return to contraction after reaching a high in April - May. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds will trend towards bonds in the contraction cycle, and the equity style will trend towards value [6][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and computer had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines [29]. - Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of May 30, the top five crowded industries were pharmaceutical biology, computer, electronics, mechanical equipment, and automobile, while the bottom five were comprehensive, coal, steel, petroleum and petrochemical, and social services. - The top five industries with the largest increase in crowding this week were computer, pharmaceutical biology, environmental protection, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and national defense and military industry, while the top five with the largest decrease were automobile, non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment, and household appliances. - The daily average trading volume of the whole A - share market decreased from 1.17 trillion yuan last week to 1.09 trillion yuan this week. Environmental protection, computer, power equipment, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [32][33]. - Industry Valuation and Profit - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines. - As of May 30, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 in April to 49.8, and most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 0.92% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then fell to - 1.3% in May, while Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 13.2% in March to 21% in April. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and the quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March rose to a relatively high level, fell significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. The automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - house sales were at a historical low, and second - hand house sales were still at a high level compared to the historical seasonality [41]. - Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of May (May 26 - 30), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of May 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57]. - Industry Recommendation - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is only slightly favorable to equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [7][63].