Huachuang Securities·2025-06-02 10:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating optimism for sales recovery and growth throughout the year [2][4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a sales recovery in May, with expectations for strong terminal sales as companies ramp up marketing efforts in June. The report forecasts a retail sales growth of 5.2% and wholesale growth of 8.4% for the year, driven by stable economic expectations, policy support, and new vehicle launches. Notably, demand for high-end brands priced above 200,000 yuan is expected to recover, with a projected growth of 31% for new energy passenger vehicles, providing a solid foundation for the performance of both complete vehicles and parts manufacturers [2][3]. Data Tracking - In April, wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. Retail sales for the same month were 1.59 million units, up 6% year-on-year but down 14% month-on-month. The report also notes an increase in inventory by 197,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [5][10]. - New energy vehicle deliveries in May showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 380,000 units (up 15% year-on-year), Li Auto 40,856 units (up 16.7% year-on-year), and Xpeng 33,525 units (up 230.4% year-on-year) [22][27]. - The average discount rate in late May rose to 7.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, with an average discount amount of 11,751 yuan [5][23]. Industry News - The report highlights that the global automotive market saw a 5% year-on-year increase in April 2025, with China accounting for 33% of global sales. Domestic retail sales from May 1-25 reached 1.358 million units, a 16% increase year-on-year [27]. - The report also mentions the launch of several new models, including the Xpeng MONA M03 Max and the Dongfeng Nano 06, which are expected to enhance market competitiveness [27][28].