存单周报：跨半年压力可控，关注配置机会-20250602

Report Title - "Bond Weekly Report: Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0526 - 0601): Cross - Half - Year Pressure is Controllable, Focus on Allocation Opportunities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In June, pay attention to the roll - over pressure of certificates of deposit. Although the cross - half - year capital risk is limited, the supply - demand structure may weaken. Consider increasing allocation when the 1Y state - owned and joint - stock bank certificate of deposit pricing is above 1.7% [2][47] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Declines, and Maturity Structure Lengthens - From May 26th to June 1st, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 66.95 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 1.677 billion yuan (compared with 2.49 billion yuan last week). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 42% to 55%, and that of joint - stock banks remained at 14%. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit rose from 28% to 59%, and the weighted issuance maturity lengthened to 8.88 months (previously 6.20 months). From June 2nd to June 8th, the maturity scale decreased to 66.495 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 1.222 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management is the Main Buyer in the Secondary Market, and the Primary Market Subscription Rate Declines Slightly - In the secondary market, wealth management products were the main buyers, with a weekly net purchase of 80.935 billion yuan. The net purchase of wealth management outsourcing (other products) increased from 32.957 billion yuan to 85.483 billion yuan, and state - owned banks' net purchase increased from 9.739 billion yuan to 37.575 billion yuan. In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) decreased slightly from about 93% to 91% [2][14] Valuation: Primary and Secondary Pricing Continues to Fluctuate at a High Level - In primary pricing, the pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit fluctuated at a high level overall. The 1M pricing rose slightly to 1.67%, 3M, 6M, and 9M products increased by 0 - 2bp, and the 1Y product decreased by 1bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks narrowed by 1bp, at the 11% historical quantile. The 1Y credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 3.72bp to 13.00bp, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 3.45bp to 10.00bp. In secondary yields, the 1M yield of AAA - rated certificates of deposit decreased significantly, and the rest continued to fluctuate. The 1Y - 3M term spread widened, at the 14% historical quantile [2] Comparison: Cross - Half - Year Capital Risk is Limited, Focus on Roll - Over Situation - The spread between certificates of deposit and funds increased slightly. The spread between the 1Y AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and DR007:15DMA widened from 9.77bp to 11.98bp, and that with R007:15DMA rose from 7.07bp to 8.27bp. The spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds widened slightly to 24.98bp, remaining at about the 5% quantile; the spread with China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 1bp to 17.50bp, and the quantile decreased to 13%. The spread between AAA short - and medium - term notes and certificates of deposit changed from an inverted 1.08bp to 1.77bp, and the quantile rose to around 7% [35]