Changjiang Securities·2025-06-02 11:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - The recent environmental inspections by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in five provinces are expected to influence coal supply and prices, but their impact may not be significant enough to drive price increases alone. However, if these inspections coincide with improved demand, there could be upward pressure on coal prices [2][7]. - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.27% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.82 percentage points, ranking 26th out of 32 industries [6][25]. - As of May 30, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 611 RMB/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1270 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton from the previous week [6][25]. Summary by Sections Environmental Inspections Impact - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated inspections in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, and Ningxia, lasting about one month. Historical data suggests that previous inspections did not significantly suppress coal supply, indicating that the current inspections may not independently drive price increases [2][7]. Market Performance - The coal sector's performance this week showed a decline of 0.27%, with thermal coal and coking coal indices experiencing slight variations. The thermal coal index fell by 0.09%, while the coking coal index dropped by 0.85% [25][28]. - The report highlights that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise as the summer peak approaches, with power plants gradually increasing their inventory needs [6][25]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal is expected to stabilize and potentially rebound due to seasonal demand increases and cost support from production and imports [6][25]. - The average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was reported at 4.517 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 10.4% week-on-week [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests marginal allocation to leading companies with stable profits, including China Coal Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8]. - It also identifies companies with growth potential and those with elastic growth characteristics, such as Electric Power Investment Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8].